It seems that the concept of a fake Apollo 11 landing, Illuminati, President Obama being a reptilian humanoid and other conspiracy theories’ viability can be proven by using math. This idea comes from an Oxford University professor named David Grimes who created a math model that can somewhat tell how long a secret can be kept.
This model does not show if a theory is true or false, it simply estimates the period of time in which a conspiracy can be kept hidden from the general public by analyzing the number of parties involved and the length of time. This mathematics technique was created by using information about conspiracies that were proven to be true, like how the idea that NSA is spying on US citizens was proven by Snowden’s revelations.
The reason why the professor decided to create this model by using mathematical logic stems from the fact that some theories can drastically affect our general well-being. True, the idea that the moon landing is a hoax does not impede us by a significant margin but conspiracies revolving around vaccination, cancer or global warming can be potentially fatal for a large majority of the general public.
According to the aforementioned model, the Apollo 11 conspiracy would have been kept secret for a maximum of 3.68 years according to the number of people involved in said landing. In order for a secret of this magnitude to be kept for 5 years, the number of parties knowing about the truth have to be fewer than 2,522.
If you want the conspiracy to be undisclosed to the general public for over 100 years, the number of conspirators should not exceed 125. If this mathematical model is correct, the idea that the US is controlled by reptilians, a humanoid species similar to lizards, is completely false. True, this model does not take into account the practices underwent between conspirators, being more of a general type of equation.
David Grimes does state that in order for this model to improve its accuracy, researchers and scientists have to conduct further investigations regarding why conspiracies persist. If humanity hopes to combat civilization-threatening difficulties, we must take into account how ideologically motivated fictions and beliefs get created in the first place.
Even if conspiracy theories’ viability can be proven by using math, this may very well be yet another conspiracy in order to hide deeper conspiracies. Conspiracy buffs and aficionados will simply see this mathematical model as a conspiracy within a conspiracy within a conspiracy, similar to how the Inception movie approached the idea of dreams.